It’s impossible to predict the future. This should go without saying, but even in the world of investment, smart people forget this reality. So we have to be reminded. Lots of writers and philosophers have wrapped up this thought in various ways: NassimTaleb’s “Black Swan”; Charlie Munger’s “History doesn’t repeat itself…but it rhymes”. Good investment has always been about finding a way to make educated guesses about future events. But as the world grows increasingly complex, this job becomes harder and harder.
By analyzing the behaviors of all industries, world events, catastrophes, and surprises all around the globe, they are able to look at the world economy as a single organism. They can see momentum and potential. When making investment decisions, it’s important to have a team of allies who keep an eye on every corner of the world system. Their insights can inform your decisions.
Why is it important to hire a team Because you need a lot of people in order to observe all of the infinite details that make up the world economy. That’s the essence of Taleb’s Black Swan idea: the market is way too big and complex for a single person to comprehend all at once. Without an experienced team observing it all, events will fall through the cracks, sometimes gaining you money, but more often losing it. So give yourself every advantage. If you are serious about investing, pay attention to the insights of people for whom world finance is an obsession. This team has a proven record for making the most educated investments possible, staying ahead of the curve and insulating against unforeseen events. You still can’t see the future, but with a team you can definitely see it coming.